The transport sector moves an estimated 60 trillion passenger-kilometres of people and nearly 150 trillion tonne-kilometres of freight annually. ⁷⁴ These volumes are expected to more than double by 2050. ⁷⁵ Asia (in particular China) is the main driver of transport demand for both passengers and freight, followed by North America and Europe. ⁷⁶ Transport demand in sub-Saharan Africa is expected to increase sharply, with passenger-kilometres rising from around 2 trillion in 2015 to 10 trillion in 2050, and freight tonne-kilometres rising from around 1 trillion in 2015 to more than 3 trillion in 2050. ⁷⁷

Transport accounted for around 29% of global energy use in 2020, and in most countries it is either the first or second largest energy-consuming sector. ⁷⁸ The Asia-Pacific region and North America together accounted for more than half of all transport energy use in 2022. ⁷⁹ The United States consumed an estimated 23.3 EJ, followed by China (15.2 EJ) and India (4.4 EJ). ⁸⁰ The Asia-Pacific region experienced the highest average annual growth in transport energy demand between 2011 and 2019, at 4.7%, driven largely by India and China (where growth exceeded 6%). ⁸¹ Africa and Latin America and the Caribbean had the lowest demand, although Africa witnessed the second highest growth, at 3.7%. ⁸²

The Asia-Pacific region also has the fastest growing use of renewables in transport, with demand increasing 13.9% annually on average between 2010 and 2019. ⁸³ (See Figure 13) In 2019, the leading countries in Asia were Indonesia (around 0.17 EJ of renewables) and China (around 0.12 EJ). ⁸⁴ The United States, the largest consumer of renewables for transport, represented around 40% of global demand, or 1.6 EJ. ⁸⁵ The second largest consumer was Brazil, with 0.9 EJ, while in Europe, three countries – France, Germany and Spain – together accounted for 44% of the regional consumption. ⁸⁶

Road transport contributes nearly a fifth of global CO₂ emissions, with automobiles, vans and two- and three-wheelers together accounting for 68% of that share. ⁸⁷ By using existing data on the production, sale and use of these light-duty vehicles, it is possible to approximate the evolution of energy use in transport and the overall targets to be pursued.

Globally, nearly 60 million new cars were sold in 2022. ⁸⁸ The Asia-Pacific region led the market with a 61% share, followed by Europe at 25%. ⁸⁹ By country, China sold the largest share of new cars worldwide (38%, or more than 21 million) in 2021 (latest data available), followed by Japan, the United States, India and Germany, at between 4% and 6% each. ⁹⁰

The highest rates of vehicle ownership are in the United States, New Zealand, Canada, Australia, Japan and European countries, at between 600 and 900 vehicles per 1,000 inhabitants, suggesting that as countries develop, vehicle ownership worldwide will onlycontinue to rise. ⁹¹ This points to the need to target more policy and investment at delivering accessible, good-quality public transport infrastructure and services to help decouple economic growth and vehicle ownership and reduce emissions.

FIGURE 13

Renewables in Transport, by Region, 2010-2019

Biofuels account for around 90% of the renewable energy use in transport, with average annual growth of 5% between 2010 and 2020. ⁹² Biofuel consumption fell 4% in 2020 but is expected to grow significantly in the coming decade (potentially four-fold, by some estimates). ⁹³ Much of this rise will likely be driven by blending mandates and regulations that increase the share of biofuels in blends.

Transport fuels produced from advanced biomass feedstocks provide a short-term option towards decarbonising aviation and maritime transport as well as heavy-duty trucks and public buses. ⁹⁴ (See Snapshot: Spain)The EU's ReFuelEU Aviation initiative proposes raising the required share of SAF used in flights departing from the EU to 2% in 2025 and 63% in 2050, which could accelerate changes globally. ⁹⁵ More ambitious targets could be set in the future, following successful test flights in 2022 of commercial aircraft running entirely on SAF, resulting in life-cycle emission reductions of 80%. ⁹⁶

Renewable electricity accounts for 10% of the renewable energy used in transport, with average annual growth of 7% between 2010 and 2020. ⁹⁷ Overall electricity demand in the sector grew at an average rate of 3.6% per year. ⁹⁸ In 2020, despite the slowdown in electricity use in transport (down 3% compared to 2019), the demand for renewable electricity in the sector grew 5.4%. ⁹⁹

Electric cars accounted for 14% of all new automobiles sold in 2022, reflecting the steep sales growth in recent years. ¹⁰⁰ China alone registered around half of the estimated 10 million electric vehicles sold globally in 2022. ¹⁰¹ In just a five-year period, electric car sales grew 10-fold in China and 18-fold in the Republic of Korea. ¹⁰² In Europe, around 17% of all automobile sales were electric in 2022, with this share reaching 86% in Norway. ¹⁰³ In Germany, the electric car fleet grew nearly 30-fold between 2016 and 2021, at an average annual rate of 109%. ¹⁰⁴

Although electric vehicle sales have focused mainly on light-duty passenger vehicles, annual sales of electric buses are projected to triple by 2025, and electric trucks to grow 13-fold, to reach a combined 468,000 units. ¹⁰⁵ By the end of 2022, the number of electric two- and three-wheelers exceeded an estimated
250 million worldwide, dominated by the Asian market; China alone has around 195 million electric two-wheelers, while in India nearly 40% of three-wheelers are electric. ¹⁰⁶ These increases are driven mostly by battery electric vehicles, whereas plug-in hybrids have shown only modest growth. ¹⁰⁷

Concerns about costs, range, prolonged charging times and a lack of dense charging networks have all hampered greater adoption of electric vehicles. ¹⁰⁸ This is especially true for electric trucks, which are crucial to cutting transport emissions because trucks are the least-efficient transport mode in energy use per tonne-kilometre. ¹⁰⁹ In the medium term, promising advancements include greater government investment in charging networks, as well as technology innovations that point to much faster charging times. ¹¹⁰ Prototype vehicle-integrated solar PV modules are being tested to improve electric vehicle ranges by 800 kilometres per year and electric trucks ranges by 10,000 kilometres per year. ¹¹¹

In another industry development, the European ISO 15118-20 standard for vehicle-to-grid technology was published in 2022, supporting communication between electric vehicle batteries and the power grid. Such communication will enable efficiency gains in charging operations as well as the use of electric vehicles as distributed energy sources that supply power to the electricity grid, contributing to grid stability. ¹¹²

In 2021, the stock of hydrogen-powered fuel cell electric vehicles was still very small, at 51,600 units, with 82% of these being automobiles and the rest being trucks and buses. ¹¹³ Although fuel cell electric vehicles are less efficient than battery electric vehicles, they are a plausible option for cutting emissions from heavy road transport in the medium term. ¹¹⁴ Advancements in fuel cell technology have enabled ranges of up to 1,500 kilometres and faster tank fill-up, and efforts are progressing to green the production of hydrogen and make it more efficient. ¹¹⁵ China has led the way, with buses and trucks comprising most of its hydrogen fleet, and a network of 146 charging stations in 2021. ¹¹⁶

Globally, however, less than 1% of the hydrogen that is currently supplied across sectors is low-emission – produced mainly from bioenergy and from fossil fuels using carbon capture, utilisation and storage technology. ¹¹⁷ To meet future demand, the hydrogen obtained from these two sources, and especially zero-emission hydrogen, must increase significantly, alongside efforts to produce renewable hydrogen through electrolysis. This will require adding up to an estimated 700 gigawatts of electrolyser capacity by 2030. ¹¹⁸ If achievable, the shift to renewable hydrogen could play an important role in reducing emissions in maritime transport and aviation in the coming decade. ¹¹⁹

Snapshot.SPAIN

Transitioning from Polluting Compressed Fossil Gas to Biogas

In 2022, Madrid City Council in Spain announced a project to power city buses with biomethane generated by the Valdemingómez Technology Park, one of the largest waste treatment plants in Europe. Since the 2000s, Madrid Municipal Transport Company (EMT) has used compressed fossil gas (CNG) buses to replace its diesel units. Although CNG improves urban air quality by reducing nitrogen oxide pollutants, it does not reduce CO₂ emissions. The use of biomethane, a biofuel obtained from organic waste transformed through anaerobic digestion processes, contributes to reduced emissions while performing similarly to fossil gas.

Read more Collapse

Transitioning from Polluting Compressed Fossil Gas to Biogas

In 2022, Madrid City Council in Spain announced a project to power city buses with biomethane generated by the Valdemingómez Technology Park, one of the largest waste treatment plants in Europe. Since the 2000s, Madrid Municipal Transport Company (EMT) has used compressed fossil gas (CNG) buses to replace its diesel units. Although CNG improves urban air quality by reducing nitrogen oxide pollutants, it does not reduce CO₂ emissions. The use of biomethane, a biofuel obtained from organic waste transformed through anaerobic digestion processes, contributes to reduced emissions while performing similarly to fossil gas.

During 2023, the Valdemingómez Technology Park will supply at least 6 gigawatt-hours (GWh) of biomethane to a fleet of 20 CNG buses for the C1 circular line, one of the network's busiest. In 2021, the C1 line covered more than 1 million kilometres and transported around 4.4 million passengers. The Park was recently renovated to increase its biomethane production capacity to 180 GWh per year, equivalent to the fossil gas consumption of 20,000 Spanish homes or 500 EMT buses. The plant's waste treatment services represent an estimated reduction of more than 43,500 tonnes of CO₂-equivalent emissions annually.

The initiative is made possible through an agreement between EMT and the Valdemingómez Technology Park, with the participation of private groups such as PreZero (the company in charge of the biogas treatment plant at the Park) and the trading company Axpo. The project has secured EUR 285,000 (USD 305,000) in grant financing from the Madrid Business Forum, a public-private platform for business development. The initiative is part of the Madrid City Council's Circular Mobility Project and EMT's Strategic Plan, and is also aligned with the Madrid 360 Environmental Sustainability Strategy, which aims to reduce the city's emissions through programmes such as sustainable mobility.

Source: See endnote 94 for this module.